CHAPTER 11

THE USE OF QUALITATIVES IN

HISTORICAL RESEARCH

Cyril Anaele, PhD

Introduction

As a process, the use of quantities entails series of activities such as method of data collection, testing of validity and reliability of data, formulation of research questions, hypothesis to be tested and theoretical frame-work on which to situate the problem under study. Quantitative approach for empirical historical research is fast becoming a fashion and as such can no longer be wished away. This chapter seeks to address the essence of quantification, the methods used for quantitative history, and presentation of data. In the final analysis, the study argues that the quantitative method enlivens history, reduces the bias usually associated with impressionistic history which in turns of course, a product of quantitative historian.

The whites hardly ever looked at the continent of Africa as a historical entity. For a long time, all kinds of myths and prejudices concealed the true history of Africa from the world at large (Amadou 1990). Africa has a history, but unfortunately, for far too long, little was known about it and the little known was misunderstood and distorted (Smit 1978, Erim and Uya 19884, Afigbo 1985, Davidson 1970).

In the view of Amadou (1990) the Europeans refused to see Africans as the creators of the original cultures which flowered and survived over the centuries in patterns of their own making. Europeans by not forgoing their prejudices and re-examining their methodology are unable to grasp that indeed Africa was and still is historical part of the World (Alagoa and Williamson 1983). the European adventures, travelers, slave dealers, merchants, Soldiers, Missionaries, Administrators, colonialist and scholars of different persuasions over thousands of years either by ignorance, self-interest or misconception tainted the image of Africa with spurious identification as a people without history until the coming of Europeans (Traver Ropper 1966).

In their ignorance of African past and history, the Europeans like Traver Ropper risked the conclusion on Africa without history, born of course, out of bias and racism. Basically, three main sources are available for the historiography of Africa as elsewhere. It has to be emphasized here that none of these sources, however, is automatically or everlastingly predominant (Amadou 1990).

The three main sources are namely

1. Written documents

2. Archaeology and

3. Oral Tradition.

All the three are supplemented with linguistics, anthropology, archives, art, the natural and the physical science (Nzewunwa 1990), and Technology (Lundberg 1951). Each has its limitations, but this need not detain us here. Historical Objectivity may be affected or reduced by these limitations.

Objectivity is defined by Nzewunwa (1990) as commitment to truth in historical writing. At times, t is equated with scientific method or the pursuit of facts usually uninfluenced by personal feelings or passing of moral judgment (Anaele 2008). Historiography is the art and technique of writing history (Anyanwu 1995).

Generally, the use of quantitative method in historiography minimizes bias and subjectivity by authentic verification of veracity of the information and its sources. Busha and Harter (1980) see quantitative history as useful in explaining the relationship between historical factors through collection and organization of evidence (data) for drawing of conclusions followed by a meaningful narrative to recount or re-enact past events. The selection, organisation and analysis of the evidence unarguably improve the quality of the history under survey.

This work addresses the role of Mathematics in quantitative, methods of quantitative historiography, interpretation of the data and criticism against its use.

Explanation of Key Words

I. History.

To the African, History is the embodiment and incorporation of everything he did, whether be it technology, medicine, religion, institutions etc. even as he did not establish special institutions for historical studies. In this work, history is taken to mean the sum total of human experience, an enquiry into the past, with the aim of understanding the present in order to predict the future and avoid repetition of past mistakes. After all, the present we know is the past. Essentially, history is about human achievements, failures, peoples, events worthy of preservation, and even ideas. There is no knowledge without historical origin. For the academic historian, it is the methodical study or record of the past which may be remote or immediate. History is the mirror of the society, for it puts in perspective not only the past, but also the present, and to a large extent the future. Put in another way, the past is important to the historian, because it is the parent of today, which in turn is the parent of tomorrow. This linkage and continuity give history its important role in any human society.

II. Historiography.

It is the art, method and technique of writing history guided by commitment in pursuit of facts unaffected by bias, personal feelings distortions or passing of moral judgments. It is writing of history with objectivity, uninfluenced by personal interest and political leanings or government.

III. Objectivity.

It is the commitment of the historian to write history with a good approximation of truth.

IV. Quantification.

The use of mathematical figures, numbers and statistics in historical research to represent or express findings on the topic under study. By using quantitative numbers, graphs scales measurement of variables, percentages etc. the quantitative historian rids his writing of personal biases through empirical data that are verifiable with content validity.

Let us use the following table for illustration.

Table 1: Enrollment of students by Gender into Salem University, Lokoja-Nigeria 2010 – 2015

Year No. of Males % No. of Females % Total Male and Female % Differential %

2010/11 200 36 360 64 560 100 28

2011/12 260 41 380 59 640 100 18

2012/13 250 40 372 58 622 100 18

2013/14 280 42 378 58 658 100 16

2014/15 285 42 390 58 675 100 16

2015/16 1,270 39 1,980 61 3,250 100 22

The Essence of Qualitative Method

Quantities are fast becoming a fashion in historical research for data presentation.

Historians as do other researchers in different academic fields are also expected to make use of quantities (Mc Dowell 2002) and Fritz (1956). Quantitative history is the use of data expressed in mathematical presentation for historical studies.

One may be tempted to ask, where does mathematics concerned largely with figures, numbers, quantities, angles, equation, and measurements meet with history, or archaeology which are about re-enacting and reconstructing the past from works of ancestors, or from broken pots of pieces of stone? Mathematics helps to add not only glamour to historical evidence, but also a measure of precision usually lacking in narrative history. A committed historian must endeavor to acquire some degrees of mathematical skill for understanding the dynamics of change within the society he studies, if he must be relevant in terms of evaluating and deciding policy, making inputs into it, in the analysis and implementation of such policies.

Many have shied away from the use of quantities even when their presentation earnestly needs it. Even some who have such quantities at their disposal simply refused to use them, as if they are non-essential elements of history. This accounts for the bulk of volumes in their analysis and interpretation, basically qualitative.

Quantities and numbers take different forms in historical research. They may be used to represent age, in-come and expenditure, birth, death, income disparity, family size, population, human development index, gender disparity, unemployment rate, budgets, pattern of voting during elections, poverty rate, number of school dropouts, crime rate, road accident rate, literacy and illiteracy rate, inflation rate, economic growth, policy evaluation and analysis, level of corruption, and social vices, census figures to mention just a few.

It is therefore as important as it is needful for the historian researcher to grasp how quantities and their presentation can assist in answering some of his questions and thus, enhance the quality of his argument and findings. Nzewunwa (1990) sees historians who display blind eyes towards quantities as negligent as wasteful by their neglect of quantities as if they do not exist.

Above all, quantitative method has many advantages lacking in qualitative history. It uses sets out in advance and as early as possible the systems and methods of grouping/ classification, the mathematical and hypothetical assumptions used and the pattern trend of the topic under research. By this process, it becomes possible with ease to cross-check the results produced, establish trend, continuity and change. It’s another advantage is in bias. It reduces bias often seen in qualitative approach, usually arising from impressionist history. The quantitative historian searches for patterns into which to situate his study, outline similarities and comparison using mathematical data. The quantitative historian must not lose sight of the diversity of human historical experience but should instead try to reduce it into a compact, comprehensive and manageable degree. A warning must be sounded here on the use of figures.

Figures may be misused (Njoku 2017). This may result to poor quantitative history, particularly in a situation where there are pre-determined categories to which the evidence is forced to slant. Another caution is avoiding assumptions from being contrary to historical facts. These problems also could beset the qualitative history.

In his book, Mathematics in Archaeology, Clive Orton states in the preface that “Mathematics can be used as a tool for organizing one’s thought, and data, and as such is of value to any archaeologist (historian) Whatever his philosophy, whether he works in the field, laboratory, study or armchair “p13.

Methods of Quantitative History.

The quantitative historian like other researchers according to (Lundberg 1951) Claire (2011), Obasi (1999), (Ezeifedi and Njoku, 2017), (Nzewunwa 1990) in his methodology is involved in collection of data, the classification and arrangement of data, the description of data and analysis/presentation.

Interpretation of Data

A historian is faced with a number of quantitative evidences which may be economic, political and social. The historian may collect data that bear relevance to the economy.

This may involve areas such as population, agriculture, distribution and consumption, import and export, budgets, transportation, income and expenditure among others.

Political data may be in form of demographic information such as age, or election and even administrative units and their performance. A historian involved in social history may be interested in collecting data about education in the form of schools, their locations, enrollment, sex and age of students and school examination results.

On religious matters, He may concern himself with denomination and attendance.

There are also other social matters which may be in the form of hospitals, number of beds, bed space, and patients in and out, ratio of doctors to patients, number of deaths, hospital facilities, budgetary allocation to health etc.

He may also like to know about the prisons in his study of crime and punishment or even about accidents on the roads. All of these require some quantification on the part of the historian. We may illustrate this further by taking a few examples.

Let us consider the political historian interested in elections. He will need quantitative evidence of various forms. Such evidence may be scattered in various places. It is only by asking the relevant questions that the historian may get answers to carry out fruitful research in the subject area.

The evidence available may be proved by the quality of the quantity obtained. For example, answers may be gotten from the following questions on elections

i. What was the election for?

ii. How many constituencies were involved?

iii. How many parties contested?

iv. How many candidates contested in each party?

v. In each constituency?

vi. What was the social and economic status of the candidate?

vii. The historian may also have to ask questions on the voting pattern; for example, how many registered voters were on the voting register? How many actually voted?

He may break this further from booth to booth, constituency to constituency, state by state, before arriving at a national total. He may also be interested in the type of people who voted for each party such as their social status, ethnic composition, religion, age range or even their sex, and literacy level.

By doing this over a number of years of elections, he may be able to see the voting pattern from one area to the other, from one state to another, and therefore make conclusions on the pattern.

For a fairly stable literate society, the political historian may be in a position, using such information, the analysis and interpretation, to forecast the trend of future elections.

The economic historian on the other hand deals more with quantities. His evidence may be in the form of living standards which may be in the form of cost of living. He can study the trends and patterns for a number of years for which he can obtain information.

The method is to select a given number of years and the manner in which money is spent. For instance, in the family may be spent on food, clothing, house rent, education, health and other sundries.

For each year under study, he enters in the relevant column the total amount spent, he also notes in a column, the total income for the family. By doing this for a number of years, say ten years, he will be able to find the mean for the period under study, for a given size of family on a given income.

From such study, he can find out the pattern of income and expenditure, and from there make generalization on living standard. It is also from this that he makes recommendations on improvement on the standard of free government subsidy on social services, increase in wages or reduction in some rents and health bills.

Presentation of Data

The quantitative historian like in other disciplines deals with quantities. He knows that his information is scattered in a number of places, and in most cases in a confused form that requires order and sanity.

There are certain methods of presenting such data to make them manageable and easy to understand. The simplest of such method is tabulation.

Table:

A table is a convenient method of producing an ordered pattern of numerical data. It facilitates the compilation of complex numerical information. Whatever the nature of the table, the presenter should always strive to make it simple, ensure that the columns and rows have headings with brief units of the quantity being measured.

 

Table 2: Showing the No. of Male/Female Admission into Salem University 2011-15.

Year Males % No. of Females % Total Male and Female Differential %

2011 392 43.01 493 56.99 865 13.98

2012 468 43,33 612 56.67 1080 13.34

2013 412 41.04 592 58.96 1004 17.94

2014 457 43.07 604 56.93 1061 13.86

2015 489 46.09 572 53.91 1061 13.82

Diagrams

Data can also be presented by diagrammatic forms. Diagrams represent quantitative information. The objective is to reduce space, create aesthetics and enhance the quality of historical study. For instance, when one is involved in social history or economic history that treats demography, one may accumulate so many quantities from year to year, decade to decade or even century to century.

Once the researcher is able to determine the mean of each of the subset being studied, it becomes easy to represent each quantity by diagrams. For example, the growth rate of a population of a given group of people for over a century may be represented by 10 different figures of the human being, each different from the other in heights.

This involves the use of scales which informs the reader about the population. The figures are ranked side by side to make them seen and understood in context. In discussing the population size and growth of a country, or even the density, such representation can be done by dots, each showing the size of the population in a given area or period.

It thus varies in size. Large dots for areas with large population, medium for areas with average population, and small where the area is low.

Diagrammatic representations eliminate the use of lots of words and even figures.

Diagram: 1 showing the number of male/female admission into Salem University Lokoja2011-2015

Table 3: Showing the Number of Male/Female Admission into Salem University, Lokoja 2011 - 2015

Year No. of Males % No. of Females % Total Male and Female % Differential %

2010/11 200 36 360 64 560 100 28

2011/12 260 41 380 59 640 100 18

2012/13 250 40 372 58 622 100 18

2013/14 280 42 378 58 658 100 16

2014/15 285 42 390 58 675 100 16

2015/16 1,270 39 1,980 61 3,250 100 22

Histogram

According to Wikipedia, A histogram is an accurate representation of the distribution of numerical data. It is an estimate of the probability distribution of a continuous variable and was first introduced by Karl Pearson. It differs from a bar graph, in the sense that a bar graph relates two variables, but a histogram relates only one.

A histogram chat showing the number of male and female admission into Salem University Lokoja 2011 – 2015

Figure 1: Histogram Chat Showing the Number of Male and Female Admission into Salem University Lokoja 2011 - 2015

Line Charts

The line chart is made up of line of different lengths, each length describing the size or number. For example, if the historian wishes to consider admission into an institution for a period of time, he must obtain a total score for each year. He represents each year of enrollment by line.

The method is to put at the extreme left side, different quantities scaled from zero upwards. On the horizontal axis, the years in question are written. It is then possible to project the enrollment of a given year on the straight line running from the horizontal line axis from the point where the year is indicated vertically upwards, until the required figure on the left column is met.

Line chart showing the number of male and female admission into Salem University, Lokoja 2011-2015.

Figure 2: Line Chart showing the Number of Male and Female Admission into Salem University, Lokoja 2011 - 2015

Graphs

We can by using the same process of vertical line and horizontal intersecting at some points use quantities to create a graph. Graphs are usually created by points. The procedure is to join the points. By joining the points, we are in better position to appreciate the difference in the quantities we study to enhance the quality of our work.

Interpretation

Collection, arrangements and presentation of data are of importance; their analysis and interpretation are of equal importance.

By using statistics of numbers and quantities, empirical evidence becomes possible and a hypothesis is created and tested. Deductions are also made from such information.

This may also be abused, particularly when the available data are misused by forcing them to skew towards pre-determined conclusions. The ability to describe and compare phenomenon proves very helpful not only to other scholars but also to government, policymakers, and policy implementers. They help and assist them in making fast decisions.

For an academic and professional historian to identify the ills and errors in his society, he must be able to appreciate the methods by which the facts in currency have been arrived at. Without this, he cannot criticize what is wrong in whatever situation he finds himself, be it education, industries or even government. Thus, a good committed historian requires knowledge of how policies are made and arrived at to be able to make an input in decision-making. Quantities, when professionally used in historical research save the historian time, reduce volume of words used in narrative and qualitative history, and spares him from the embarrassment of being charged of opportunism, bias and distortion of historical facts.

Summary and Conclusion

Every knowledge or academic discipline has a historical origin. Simply put there is history in all human achievement, be it science, technology, politics, economics, social sciences, art, strategic studies, crime, demography, gender, urban and transport studies, culture, inter-state religion, law, education, administration, war and peace studies, anthropology to mention just a few.

One can therefore and rightly too, see history as cutting across all human and societal activities; the bad, the valley, those advancement, as well as those to be discarded. This amorphous nature of history puts much demand on the historian if he is to remain relevant to his ever changing world.

The stark reality requires from the historian some degrees of flexibility in his methodology by not holding firmly on the orthodox traditional technique of narrative history sourced primarily from historical evidence(s). Since history now goes beyond the boundaries of its traditional role, it has therefore become imperative for the historian to incorporate quantities, social science and scientific approaches in his research.

Conclusions

This work has addressed the inescapable demand on historian to have a working knowledge of quantities for presentation of historical research. This becomes unavoidable going by the current trend to understand history through socio-political and economic trends in our society, their continuity and change, as well as how these have contributed to human and society development. He is the creator and the destroyer. In conclusion therefore, man as a social being cannot be fully studied without complementing such studies with social science and scientific approach.

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